Extraordinary

Tadej Pogačar’s 2026 season stared how he left off in 2025. Extraordinarily. Beginning the year with an historic feat in his sights - victory at all 5 Monuments - to many it seemed inevitable that he would reach his goal within a few months.

After the early season Italian races the odds had shortened significantly. It would have been a brave pundit indeed to bet against him securing victory in Paris-Roubaix following his narrow win at Milano-Sanremo.

In reality, however, the outcome of Paris-Roubaix should never be taken for granted.

What happened to the GOAT?

With all of Belgium in rapture following Van Aert’s win, it did leave a question hanging. What happened to the GOAT? After falling at the final hurdle once more is it still likely that Pogačar will take victory at a future Paris-Roubaix and seal his place among the pantheon of one day racing? With Pogačar himself indicating that he won’t return to the cart tracks of Northern France next year, the inevitability of him grasping this greatest of achievements seems to be fading.

In the history of the sport only three riders, all Belgian, have completed this gargantuan task. Rik van Looy, Roger De Vlaeminck and of course Eddy Merckx. None of these in what would be considered the modern era. That Merckx’s career overlapped with both of these other titans of the sport puts paid to the commonly perceived notion that somehow in his day the opposition was easier and the races less competitive.

A Lack of Serious Competition

Indeed, the inverse may be true. That Pogačar himself is benefitting from a lack of serious competition. Besides the current World Champion only 4 other active riders have won more than one Monument. John Degenkolb (Milano-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix), Remco Evenepoel (2x Liège-Bastogne-Liège), Wout van Aert (Milano-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix) and Mathieu van der Poel (Ronde van Vlaanderen x3, Paris-Roubaix x3 and Milano-Sanremo x2). None of whom have shown they have the characteristics to join the lofty heights of the legendary Belgian trio.

Despite persistent comparisons, Eddy Merckx’s record in the Monuments is still some way ahead of Pogačar with 19 wins across the greatest one day races in cycling.

With his last gasp win at Milano-Sanremo Pogačar clawed his way ahead of Roger De Vlaeminck, a great rival of Merckx’s for the majority of his career, with whom the Slovenian had been tied. Pogačar’s defence of Liège-Bastogne-Liège put clear water between them taking his tally to 13 overall. This consists of 5x Il Lombardia, 4x Liège-Bastogne-Liège and 3x Ronde van Vlaanderen alongside his recent Milano-Sanremo victory.

Head to Head with Merckx

Although his record is massively impressive, claims of Pogačar’s GOAT status are particularly generous to the Slovenian if you examine his record with Merckx’s head-to-head. To put Merckx’s achievement’s into context, by the age of 26 - a year younger than Pogačar - he had won all of the 5 Monuments. At the age of 24, only Il Lombardia eluded him.

With only Paris-Roubaix remaining, Pogačar’s love of one day racing could be the fuel that drives him to become the first non Belgian to accomplish this most difficult of feats.

Pure Adrenaline

Speaking to L’Equipe in December 2024 the rider put his passion for the Classics into words:

“I love the Classics; it's pure adrenaline, a one-day shock that has nothing to do with suffering spread over three weeks. You have to be physically and mentally ready to battle for six hours, often in bad weather, on roads that are always the same and that everyone knows by heart.”

“The winning move can come from anywhere; you have to be a bit of a gambler, not make any mistakes. On that day, you have to be the strongest, the luckiest, the most inspired; everything has to align perfectly, there are no second chances. Since everything hinges on a single day, the emotion of victory is incomparable.”

The Rider of His Generation

Whether this love for the Classics and the desire to achieve the grand slam of one day cycling will be allowed to flourish is up for debate. The necessity to grind out Tour de France wins and a tilt at joining a slightly less exclusive group by winning all three Grand Tour will be strong.

If he is true to his word and doesn’t return to Paris-Roubaix next season, will he be able to take on this final Monument and beat it? Younger riders (though at 27 Pogačar is by no means old) are beginning to come through and offer up a challenge. His great rival Mathieu van der Poel would expect to be able to win once again on the roads of Northern France. A resurgent Wout van Aert has also bettered Pogačar twice on cobbles in the last 2 seasons and seemingly has the measure of the Slovenian in some circumstances. The inevitability of Pogačar’s ascent to Merckx beating GOAT status has to be in some doubt.

Pogačar is clearly a great rider. The rider of his generation, but to be better than Merckx takes a rider of a lifetime. Whether this is the case, remains to be seen.